In April, I heard a fascinating presentation given by Jim Taylor of The Harrison Group at the Neilsen-Claritas Precision Marketing Conference. (Claritas develops the PRIZM marketing database for audience segmentation.) While the presentation, entitled 10 Trends Affecting the Future of the Marketplace, addressed commercial marketing, I found it thought provoking for those of us working with social marketing.
The 10 Trends:
1. The Power of Me
*People are most passionate about themselves and their inner circle of family and friends.
Things Personally Passionate About
1. Family (81%)
2. Friends (65%)
3. Partner (62%)
4. Good Health (59%)
5. Leisure Time (47%)
2. The Population Bomb
*Population is growing in every region of the world.
*Life expectancy between 1950 and 2005 increased in every region except Sub-Saharan Africa.
*Quoting an article from Newsweek Magazine, Taylor asked, "...will a larger population produce more poets or just more heroin addicts? And which of the two will prevail?
3. The Eco-Strain
*The problem is not "too many people," but "too much consumption of natural resources."
*In a list of things people are passionate about, the environment ranks number 11 out of 11, after "My Family,", "Leisure Time," and "Sex."
4. The Bifurcation of America
*The Middle Class shrank from 36% to 31% between 1980 and 2007, while the "Affluent" increased from 15% to 31% during the same period.
*The Top Five Percent of wealth holders in the US have $32 trillion, while the remaining 95% have $7 trillion.
*23.5 million teens (13-18) have increased buying power: $2,634 average annual income; $1,474 average annual allowance; and they spend 69% of what they have!
5. The Branded Economy
*Consumers prefer brands that
- have a reputation for the best quality
- reflect high craftsmanship
- have a reputation for service
*As consumers see brands becoming increasingly similar, uniqueness and experience drive brand preference at the margins.
*The "wow factor" in the future of retail will be where design, quality, service and artistry meet the consumer's world and the consumer's agenda.
*Bad experience with a brand is a more powerful driver of behavior than good experience with a brand.
6. The Rise of the Logical Consumer
*Traditionally, shopping has been an art form. Shoppers were high touch. Shoppers loved shopping alone, sales people, and finding new things.
*Now, we see the rise of shopping as a high tech activity. Shoppers make (save) money through logical purchasing. Shoppers love the Internet, comparison shopping, transparency.
7. The Rise of Discontinuity Anxiety
*Levels of happiness in the US have been fairly high and stable (1972-2006), however:
-55% of the population experienced feelings of depression in the last year
-57% are optimistic about their own future
-only 32% are optimistic about America's future
-only 29% are optimistic about the future of the planet
*But wait, there is more bad news!
-81% feel something bad is going to happen
-80% feel the world is deteriorating
8. The Rise of the New Middle Class Aristocracy (Globally)
*79% of the current middle class grew up in middle class or lower environments.
*Most of those with affluence and wealth are young--72% have had affluence or wealth less than 15 years.
*9.5 million people globally hold more than $1 million in financial assets--this represents an 8.2% increase over 2006.
9. The Creation of a Global Economic Community
*Throughout the world, people admire the same stuff; aspire to the same brands (iPods, Mercedes cars, an American Express Card; Coca-Cola, General Electric, Microsoft).
*"As the world becomes more homogeneous on a 'stuff' basis, it also becomes more heterogeneous in terms of belief, creating the opportunity [in retail] to discover oneself in brands."
10. The American Home Enterprise Revolution
*54% of American families have both parents living together.
*59% of families eat dinner together at least 4 times a week ("traditional togetherness").
*Among parents, 73% say their child is their best friend.
*Among children,
-53% say their mother is their best friend (vs. 32% for fathers)
-44% say their father does not understand them (vs. 31% for mothers)
-They are more comfortable talking to their mothers about 12 out of 13 items, from shopping, to friends, to school, to religion (Men, what are we doing wrong?!)
-They are more comfortable talking to their fathers about sports (Redemption
at last!)
So, social marketers, program planners and implementers, do-gooders...My Challenge to You: What implications do you see these trends having for your work? Blog back and let me know. Let's get a discussion going! (I will tell you what Jim Taylor sees as implications next week!)
