Environmental Scan: 10 Trends Affecting the Future

In April, I heard a fascinating presentation given by Jim Taylor of The Harrison Group at the Neilsen-Claritas Precision Marketing Conference. (Claritas develops the PRIZM marketing database for audience segmentation.)  While the presentation, entitled 10 Trends Affecting the Future of the Marketplace, addressed commercial marketing, I found it thought provoking for those of us working with social marketing.

The 10 Trends:
1. The Power of Me
    *People are most passionate about themselves and their inner circle of family and friends.
    Things Personally Passionate About
    1. Family (81%)
    2. Friends (65%)
    3. Partner (62%)
    4. Good Health (59%)
    5. Leisure Time (47%)

2. The Population Bomb
    *Population is growing in every region of the world.
    *Life expectancy between 1950 and 2005 increased in every region except Sub-Saharan Africa.
    *Quoting an article from Newsweek Magazine, Taylor asked,  "...will a larger population produce more poets or just more heroin addicts?  And which of the two will prevail?

3. The Eco-Strain
    *The problem is not "too many people," but "too much consumption of natural resources."
    *In a list of things people are passionate about, the environment ranks number 11 out of 11, after "My Family,", "Leisure Time,"  and "Sex."

4. The Bifurcation of America
    *The Middle Class shrank from 36% to 31% between 1980 and 2007, while the "Affluent" increased from 15% to 31% during the same period.
    *The Top Five Percent of wealth holders in the US have $32 trillion, while the remaining 95% have $7 trillion.
    *23.5 million teens (13-18) have increased buying power:  $2,634 average annual income; $1,474 average annual allowance; and they spend 69% of what they have!

5. The Branded Economy
    *Consumers prefer brands that
          - have a reputation for the best quality
          - reflect high craftsmanship
          - have a reputation for service
    *As consumers see brands becoming increasingly similar, uniqueness and experience drive brand preference at the margins.
    *The "wow factor" in the future of retail will be where design, quality, service and artistry meet the consumer's world and the consumer's agenda.
    *Bad experience with a brand is a more powerful driver of behavior than good experience with a brand.

6. The Rise of the Logical Consumer
    *Traditionally, shopping has been an art form. Shoppers were high touch.  Shoppers loved shopping alone, sales people, and finding new things.
    *Now, we see the rise of shopping as a high tech activity.  Shoppers make (save) money through logical purchasing.  Shoppers love the Internet, comparison shopping, transparency.

7. The Rise of Discontinuity Anxiety
    *Levels of happiness in the US have been fairly high and stable (1972-2006), however:
            -55% of the population experienced feelings of depression in the last year
            -57% are optimistic about their own future
            -only 32% are optimistic about America's future
            -only 29% are optimistic about the future of the planet
    *But wait, there is more bad news!
            -81% feel something bad is going to happen
            -80% feel the world is deteriorating

8. The Rise of the New Middle Class Aristocracy (Globally)
    *79% of the current middle class grew up in middle class or lower environments.
    *Most of those with affluence and wealth are young--72% have had affluence or wealth less than 15 years.
    *9.5 million people globally hold more than $1 million in financial assets--this represents an 8.2% increase over 2006.

9. The Creation of a Global Economic Community
    *Throughout the world, people admire the same stuff; aspire to the same brands (iPods, Mercedes cars, an American Express Card; Coca-Cola, General Electric, Microsoft).
    *"As the world becomes more homogeneous on a 'stuff' basis, it also becomes more heterogeneous in terms of belief, creating the opportunity [in retail] to discover oneself in brands."

10. The American Home Enterprise Revolution
    *54% of American families have both parents living together.
    *59% of families eat dinner together at least 4 times a week ("traditional togetherness").    
    *Among parents, 73% say their child is their best friend.
    *Among children,
            -53% say their mother is their best friend (vs. 32% for fathers)
            -44% say their father does not understand them (vs. 31% for mothers)
            -They are more comfortable talking to their mothers about 12 out of 13 items, from shopping, to friends, to school, to religion (Men, what are we doing wrong?!)
            -They are more comfortable talking to their fathers about sports (Redemption
at last!)

So, social marketers, program planners and implementers, do-gooders...My Challenge to You:  What implications do you see these trends having for your work?  Blog back and let me know.  Let's get a discussion going!  (I will tell you what Jim Taylor sees as implications next week!) 

 

Comments

[Phil]

Regarding #7,I believe the impact of the economic crisis contributes to anxiety.

[Janet]

Great blog - it's fabulous to find another blog which aims to share information and resources and build a social marketing community. Blogs are at last growing up and moving away from being personal rants...keep it up. I'll be checking in regularly...

[re3.org]

Mike,
#2, #3 and #9 relate very well for recycling. Recycling is just one step in getting us to zero-waste - we need to reduce consumption. (Tell that to my family at Christmas. You'd think I ruined the holiday for everyone). Also, recycling is truly a global project. Your waste paper is going to China and returning to us as a product.
Great post!
Kelley